The U.S. 30-year bond traded at 2.015 percent just before 8 a.m. Wednesday, a new all-time low. The previous low was 2.0889 percent in June 2016 after Britain voted to leave the European Union. The 10-year yield also fell below the 2-year rate, a reliable indicator that a recession is looming.
“It’s a very unusual time period,” said Arthur Bass, managing director of fixed income financing, futures and rates at Webush Securities.
The falling yields mean that investors are nervous about the short-term prospects for the U.S. economy. Wall Street analysts note that an inversion of the 10-year Treasury note and the 3-month Treasury bill has preceded every recession in modern history. The last time the yield-curve inverted was December 2005 but the recession didn’t hit until two years later.